PRI19980303.2000.0432
NEWS
TRANSCRIPT
This is "the world." I'm Lisa Mullins. The final results of India's
parliamentary elections will be known tonight or tomorrow, but this
much is clear -- no party has won enough seats to form its own government.
Political confusion has become the norm in India for the last several
years. The once all-powerful congress party, which governed for 45
of India's 50 years of independence, is in decline. The last government,
led by the united front, fell after the congress party withdrew its
support. And the B.J.P., the leader in the vote, is unlikely to get
a majority in the 545-member lower house of Parliament. We checked
in with the BBC's Andrew whitehead in Delhi for the latest. Most of
the results are now in, not all but most. And we know there's going
to be again in India a Hung Parliament. No party's going to have an
overall majority. But the closest are the Hindu nationalists, the
B.J.P. and their allies. And they're going to be about 25 seats short.
They think they can do it. They think they can find the extra allies.
But other parties, notably the congress party, the one that's led
by sonja gandy -- gandhi, and the left parties are talking about combining
to block the B.J.P. What is the significance -- if there is indeed
a coalition Parliament, if there is another round of coalition politics
for India, what does that mean? Well, it tends to mean indecisive,
unstable governments which can't plan long-term and that tends to
put off foreign investments, which is one of the reasons why share
prices in India have gone down quite sharply during the past 24 hours.
And I think that's one of the main concerns. If the B.J.P. gets into
a coalition government, leads a coalition government, I think that
would concern some Western governments and certainly would concern
Washington, not least because the B.J.P. says it wants India to be
openly a nuclear power and perhaps to have a nuclear weapons test.
And I think also it's interesting for outside observers because one
of the big ironies of this election is the fact that Indians were
going to the ballot box primarily to say we want a stable government
after years of chaos and years of confusion. And at least right now
it doesn't as if they're going to be getting that. No, I think the
Indian voters feel a little bit cheated. Every party has said, vote
for us, we'll give you stable government. And it just so happens that
the outcome is that India will not have stable government. It's had
coalition government and weak coalition governments at that for the
past two years. And most people are really rather Fed up of it. They
want a single party strong government, but they haven't got it. What
happened to the popular support for the widow of rajiv gandhi, sonja
gandhi? She became the icon for the congress party. Did the enthusiastic
crowds not translate into enthusiastic votes for the congress party?
Well, I think she did the party some good. I think without her --
she was a charismatic figure. She was by far the biggest crowd pull
of the election campaign. Without her, the congress party would have
done a lot worse. But she hasn't delivered victory. I think a lot
of people went to her rallies to see this italian-born woman who Wears
saris and speaks in Hindi. It was curiosity. It didn't translate into
votes. Nevertheless, as I say, without the nehru family, without the
gandhi family being present, the congress party would have suffered
much worse than it did. So summarize, Andrew, if you will, the options
for us. Now, what are the possible scenarios in this election? Well,
I think the immediate scenario is of days and perhaps weeks of deal
brokering in smoke-filled rooms here in Delhi, which will eventually
lead to some sort of coalition government. It may well be, and I think
my hunch is it will be a B.J.P., a Hindu nationalist-led government,
something really rather new for India. But the -- its rivals are doing
everything they can to form a grand alliance simply to block the B.J.P.,
which they regard as a sectarian communal party, which would damage
India's secular fabric. If there is, indeed, a Hung Parliament, what
does that - how does that auger for India's attempts to modernize?
- It will be a setback. It rather depends on the actual chemistry
of the particular coalition. But we've seen over the past two years
that having a coalition government, as we've had of 13 or 14 parties,
simply means there is very little decisionmaking, and investors in
particular get worried. And the outside money which India so desperately
needs to modernize its infrastructure and to build efficient industry,
firblet telecommunications doesn't come in. -- efficient telecommunications
doesn't come in. So I think that's why investors are worried. They're
taking a little bit of fright from the prospect of more instability.
But until we know who's going to be in charge and who their allies
are, we can't be sure how serious the problem is. That's the BBC's
Andrew whitehead in Delhi.